Global Markets: key changes in the US, Europe, and China in 2026

However, as noted by Piraeus Bank in its February 2026 analysis of International Macro-Economic Trends, the global environment remains fragile, with forecasts for the world economy accompanied by a heightened degree of uncertainty. At the same time, the traditional trust-based relationship between the United States and its key allies—built after World War II—shows signs of strain, as several countries seek greater strategic autonomy and diversification of partnerships.

Meanwhile, rapid developments in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) and the massive investments directed toward it are raising concerns within the investment community. These concerns focus both on the efficiency of the investments and on potential impacts on the profitability of other sectors—particularly companies involved in data collection and processing—as expectations grow that AI integration into business operations will occur faster than initially anticipated. As a result, volatility in international markets has increased, even though economic activity in major economies continues to display solid momentum.

United States: Resilient Growth Amid Political Developments
According to Piraeus Bank, U.S. growth for 2025 is estimated at around 2.2%, compared to 2.8% in 2024, with inflation remaining near the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The labor market continues to show resilience, though with a limited number of new jobs and layoffs, indicating a gradual rebalancing.

Politically, the U.S. President announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, and a bipartisan agreement was reached on the federal budget, preventing a potential shutdown of non-essential federal services until the end of September. Additionally, attention is focused on the anticipated decision of the U.S. Supreme Court regarding the constitutionality of “reciprocal” tariffs.

Eurozone: Moderate Recovery and Focus on Strategic Autonomy
In the Eurozone, growth for 2025 is estimated at 1.5%, up from 0.9% in 2024, with inflation near the European Central Bank’s 2% target and unemployment at historically low levels. Leading economic indicators remain moderate but show some encouraging signs.

Key items on the European agenda are expected to include increased defense spending, efforts to enhance the EU’s self-sufficiency in critical raw materials and technology, and the expansion of economic partnerships with third countries, such as Mercosur states and India.

China: Domestic Demand as a Critical Factor
In China, available economic data remain limited due to Lunar New Year celebrations. For 2026, maintaining strong growth momentum is expected to rely primarily on boosting domestic demand, as prospects for a significant increase in exports appear limited. Trade tensions with the U.S. and European efforts to curb Chinese exports constitute major sources of uncertainty.

Overall Outlook
Overall, the global economy is entering a period of positive growth, yet geopolitical risks, technological disruptions, and shifting alliances are creating an environment of heightened volatility for markets and investment decisions.