Greece to maintain 1.8% growth in 2026 and 2027, IMF projects

At the same time, the IMF estimates that inflation in Greece will accelerate to 4.2% this year before easing to 3.6% in 2027, as rising energy prices weigh on the economic outlook.

The growth forecast for 2026 remains unchanged from the previous report published in April, while the projection for 2027 has been revised slightly upwards, from 1.7% to 1.8%.

The Fund’s projections place Greece on a stronger growth trajectory than the euro area, where GDP is expected to expand by 1.2% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. However, Greece’s stronger economic performance is not accompanied by similarly moderate inflationary pressures, as prices in the country are expected to rise faster than the euro area average.

Unemployment Expected to Fall to 7.6% in 2027

Economic growth is expected to contribute to a further decline in unemployment. The IMF forecasts that Greece’s unemployment rate will fall from 8.9% in 2025 to 8.0% in 2026 and 7.6% in 2027.

This development would bring the Greek labour market closer to the euro area average, where unemployment is expected to stand at 6.3% in 2027, unchanged from the previous year.

Meanwhile, inflationary pressures remain a major challenge for the Greek economy. Inflation is projected to rise from 2.9% in 2025 to 4.2% in 2026 before easing to 3.6% in 2027. The corresponding projections for the euro area stand at 3.1% and 2.8%, respectively.

According to the Fund, these pressures are linked to the greater-than-expected impact of the war in the Middle East on energy prices, which is intensifying pressure on both production costs and the cost of living.

Current Account Deficit Expected to Widen

Higher energy prices are also expected to have an adverse impact on Greece’s external balance. The current account deficit is projected to widen from 5.7% of GDP in 2025 to 6.5% in 2026, before narrowing to 5.9% in 2027.

This development reflects, among other factors, the impact of higher energy costs on imports. By contrast, the euro area is expected to maintain a current account surplus, which is projected to decline from 1.7% of GDP in 2025 to 1.2% in 2026 before recovering slightly to 1.3% in 2027.