Although the proportion of loans at this stage remains low — around 0.2%, up from 0.17% in December 2024 — the increase is occurring at a faster pace than in other forms of consumer credit, such as auto loans, credit cards, and personal loans.
“Compared to the levels observed during the 2008–2010 financial crisis, current delinquency rates are significantly lower. Nevertheless, the fact that they are rising is a concerning signal,” said Rikard Bandebo, Chief Strategy Officer and Economist at VantageScore.
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the share of mortgage loans in delinquency of any stage stood at 1.78% in Q3 2025, up from 1.74% a year earlier. For context, the corresponding rate had soared to 11.49% in Q1 2010. LendingTree analysis indicates that U.S. households collectively owed $13.07 trillion on 86.67 million mortgage loans in Q3 2025. Combining this data with Federal Reserve figures, it is estimated that approximately 1.5 million mortgages are currently delinquent.
The rise in delinquencies also contributed to a slight decline in the average VantageScore credit rating, which stood at 700 in December, down one point from the previous month and two points compared with a year earlier.
Prices Are Falling, But Affordability Remains a Challenge
Despite early signs of price moderation, housing prices remain historically high. The median home sale price reached $409,500 in December, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), down from a peak of $435,300 in June 2025 but still substantially above pre-pandemic levels.
From January 2020 to November 2025, home prices increased by 54.5%, according to the S&P Case-Shiller index. At the same time, the overall cost of living has risen by more than 25% since early 2020, based on the Consumer Price Index. Analysis by Realtor.com indicates that for housing affordability to return to pre-pandemic levels — when the average monthly mortgage payment represented roughly 21% of median household income, compared with over 30% today — one of the following would need to occur: mortgage rates would need to fall to 2.65% from approximately 6.16% today, household incomes would need to rise by 56%, or home prices would need to drop by 35%.