Alpha Bank targets 16% ROE and €7.3B in capital generation by 2030

The Group’s new strategic plan, branded “Alpha Accelerated”, marks a transition towards a new business model that extends beyond traditional lending and the provision of individual banking products. Instead, the bank aims to offer a comprehensive range of financial solutions addressing the broader needs of both businesses and individuals.

Its key priorities include deepening customer relationships, diversifying revenue streams and making more efficient use of capital, with Alpha Bank targeting an adjusted return on tangible equity (RoTE) of approximately 16% by 2030.

The new strategy builds on the bank’s 2023 Investor Day, entitled “Creating Value, Empowering Growth”, which focused on rebuilding Alpha Bank’s foundations, restoring profitability, strengthening its balance sheet, improving capital generation and resuming shareholder distributions.

With “Alpha Accelerated”, management is now moving into the next phase, seeking to leverage the Group’s stronger capital and operational foundations to accelerate value creation.

Alpha Bank’s Targets for 2030

The bank has set ambitious targets in terms of growth, profitability and operational efficiency.

Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12%, rising from around €0.41 in 2026 to approximately €0.63 in 2030. Adjusted net profits are projected to exceed €1.4 billion.

In terms of lending growth, Alpha Bank is targeting an annual net increase in loans of approximately €3 billion, with financing primarily supported by its deposit base.

Net interest income is expected to reach approximately €2.3 billion, while net fee and commission income is projected to grow at an annual rate of around 9%, reaching €850 million by 2030.

Regarding operational efficiency, the bank aims to achieve an adjusted RoTE of approximately 16%, a return on risk-weighted assets (RWA) of around 3.2% and a cost-to-income ratio of 34%.

These targets will be supported by continued investments in technology, Artificial Intelligence (AI), human capital and process simplification, alongside efforts to achieve positive operating leverage.

Stronger Balance Sheet and Capital Adequacy

A key component of the strategy is maintaining balance sheet resilience and further improving asset quality.

Alpha Bank aims to keep its non-performing exposure (NPE) ratio at approximately 2%, while its cost of risk is expected to remain below 50 basis points, declining further to 45 basis points by 2030.

At the same time, the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) is expected to remain above 160%, while the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio is projected to stand at approximately 13% by the end of the strategic period.

In addition, the bank aims to reduce deferred tax credits (DTCs) to below 5% of CET1, as part of its broader strategy to improve the quality of its capital base.

More Than €4 Billion Available for Distributions and Investments

Capital management and enhanced shareholder returns are central elements of the new strategy.

According to the strategic plan, Alpha Bank expects to generate €7.3 billion in organic capital over the 2026–2030 period. Of this amount, more than €4 billion will be available for shareholder distributions or investments during 2027–2030.

Management also plans to gradually increase the cash dividend payout ratio to 40% of net profits by 2028.

The bank’s capital policy will be based on maintaining a CET1 ratio of approximately 13% through 2030. Excess capital will either be returned to shareholders or allocated to investments capable of generating additional value, subject to the necessary approvals.

The Two Pillars of “Alpha Accelerated”

The new strategy rests on two complementary customer-focused growth pillars, designed to expand the bank’s capabilities in serving both corporate and individual clients.

The first pillar, Universal Business Bank, aims to establish a unified and coordinated relationship with corporate customers, enabling them to access the full range of products and services offered by the Group.

The approach extends beyond traditional lending to include transaction banking, treasury services, investment banking, advisory services and access to capital markets.

The second pillar, Wealth & Personal Banking, focuses on providing comprehensive financial solutions to individual customers. It combines everyday banking services with lending, investment advice, insurance, wealth management and private banking, both in Greece and internationally.

The strategy aims to increase revenue from less capital-intensive services, expanding the contribution of fee and commission income to overall profitability.

The Role of UniCredit, Technology and Artificial Intelligence

Four key factors are expected to support the implementation of the strategic plan.

The first is the partnership with UniCredit, which expands Alpha Bank’s product capabilities and access to international markets.

The second is technology, digital capabilities and Artificial Intelligence, which will be deployed to improve customer service, automate processes and increase productivity.

The third is the Group’s human capital strategy, with an emphasis on skills development and improved coordination across teams. A key objective is to operate as “One Bank”, adopting a unified approach to meeting each customer’s needs.

The fourth is disciplined capital allocation, ensuring that investments are directed towards activities offering attractive risk-adjusted returns and enhancing long-term value per share.

Favourable Economic Environment, but Growth Expected to Moderate

Alpha Bank believes that the ongoing investment cycle in the Greek economy will create significant opportunities over the next five years.

The mobilisation of private capital, national and European funding, job creation and fiscal discipline are expected to provide a favourable environment for economic growth through 2030.

However, the business plan does not assume that economic growth will accelerate continuously. Instead, it anticipates a moderation in real GDP growth from 1.9% in 2026 to 1.6% in 2030.

Against this backdrop, Alpha Bank’s competitive differentiation will rely on leveraging its expanded services platform and strategic partnerships to address a greater proportion of its customers’ financial needs.

For businesses, international expansion and the broadening of commercial activities are expected to generate increased demand for services beyond traditional lending.

For individual customers, the gradual shift from savings towards investments is expected to support demand for financial advisory, insurance protection and wealth management services.

The key challenge for Alpha Bank over the next five years will be to translate this broader business offering into higher-quality and more sustainable profitability, more efficient capital utilisation and steadily increasing shareholder returns.