OECD: Greece’s economic growth remains resilient

Specifically, it forecasts that GDP will grow by 1.9% in 2026 and by 2% in 2027, broadly in line with the 2.1% recorded in 2025.

Disbursements from the Recovery and Resilience Facility, which are estimated to rise from 2.6% of GDP in 2025 to 4.4% of GDP in 2026, are expected to support investment, while employment growth, reductions in personal income tax, and measures addressing the energy crisis will support consumption, despite high energy prices, according to the Organisation. Exports are expected to increase gradually in the second half of 2026 as global demand improves.

The OECD assesses that risks to growth are balanced, provided that energy production and exports from the Middle East recover, as expected, from the third quarter onwards. A stronger-than-expected tourism performance could further boost growth, while delays in the absorption of EU funds or prolonged disruptions in energy markets could negatively affect the outlook.

Regarding inflation (based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices), the OECD projects that it will rise from 2.9% in 2025 to 4.2% this year, driven by higher energy prices, before easing to 2.6% in 2027.

As for public finances, the Organisation forecasts sustained high primary surpluses—2.6% of GDP in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027—following the historically high surplus of 4.4% of GDP in 2025. Public debt is projected to decline to 129.8% of GDP in 2027, from 135.8% in 2026 and 146.1% in 2025.

“Prudent fiscal policy and a rapid reduction in debt should remain priorities, as challenges stemming from population ageing and investment needs will remain significant,” the report notes. “Limiting tax expenditures and continuing efforts to reduce tax evasion would create additional fiscal space to increase spending on education and healthcare,” it adds.

Regarding recent energy crisis support measures introduced by the government, the OECD notes that these should be phased out swiftly as price pressures ease.

The Organisation recommends further simplification of permitting procedures for renewable energy investments, as this would help reduce dependence on fossil fuels. “Net energy imports, particularly oil and gas, accounted for 93% of total energy supply, making Greece’s external position particularly vulnerable to disruptions in international energy markets,” the report states.

The OECD notes that strong and sustainable growth will be required to raise living standards while reducing debt.

It adds that continued efforts to improve the business regulatory framework, remove restrictions on the provision of services by self-employed professionals, and reorient labour market policies towards high-quality education and advisory services would strengthen competition and investment and improve labour productivity.

“Greece has made significant progress in increasing renewable energy production, but dependence on fossil fuels remains high, particularly in transport and housing.

Facilitating investment in renewable electricity generation through further simplification and streamlining of licensing procedures would help accelerate emissions reduction and strengthen energy security.

In addition, targeted financial support for building energy renovations and electric vehicles would also support investment towards the gradual phasing out of fossil fuels in transport and housing,” the report concludes.

Two scenarios for the global economy

The evolution of the conflict in the Middle East remains uncertain, but its economic consequences are likely to be felt for some time even after resolution, according to the OECD.

For this reason, the Organisation has developed two scenarios for global economic prospects: one in which disruptions remain relatively short-lived, and another in which they are prolonged, with broader and more severe long-term negative effects.

In the first scenario—based on the assumption that energy prices gradually decline from mid-2026 onwards, in line with current futures market expectations—the OECD projects that global economic growth will slow from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.8% in 2026, before recovering to 3.1% in 2027. Annual inflation in G20 countries is expected to rise to 4% in 2026 from 3.4% in 2025, before easing to 3.1% in 2027 as energy and food price pressures gradually subside.

In the second scenario, if disruptions persist through 2027, global growth is expected to slow significantly to just 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, potentially pushing some economies into or close to recession. Unemployment would rise and investment—including labour-intensive investment in artificial intelligence—would weaken significantly, while risks of repricing in financial markets would increase.