OPEC+: new increase in oil production in August

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies announced that they will collectively increase production by 188,000 barrels per day in August. This marks the fifth consecutive monthly production increase, although analysts estimate that its impact on the market will remain limited until the ceasefire between the United States and Iran is fully stabilized and normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is restored.

In their joint statement, the OPEC+ countries—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—emphasized that they will continue to closely monitor market conditions, maintaining the flexibility to increase, pause, or even reverse their production decisions if deemed necessary.

The announcement does not include production from the United Arab Emirates, which withdrew from OPEC in May, nor from Iran, which has increased its exports following the easing of U.S. restrictions under the ceasefire agreement.

Price decline

Despite recent tensions in the region, oil prices have declined significantly over the past month. U.S. crude WTI was priced at $68.69 per barrel, recording a monthly decrease of approximately 22%, while Brent fell to $72.12 per barrel, marking losses of about 20%.

However, analysts note that the market is still far from full normalization. Risk premiums for maritime transport remain elevated, some oil facilities are still repairing damage sustained during the conflicts, and shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not yet returned to pre-war levels.

At the same time, new concerns are emerging regarding maritime security in the Red Sea, as British military authorities reported an attack on a merchant vessel off the coast of Yemen, in an area where Houthi rebels have repeatedly threatened international shipping.