Signs of economic deceleration reported by CEOs

Signs of a slowdown in CEOs’ business sentiment are recorded by SEV-ICAP CRIF, as the perception of the economy among top executives weakens

According to the quarterly survey conducted by SEV and ICAP CRIF, in which 2,674 Chief Executive Officers and General Managers of large Greek companies participated, the General Business Climate Index (SEV/ICAP CRIF-CEO General Index) fell to 138 points in the first quarter of 2026, compared with 160 points in the previous quarter.

The decline is mainly attributed to increased uncertainty stemming from the prolonged tensions in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, with business leaders expressing concerns over the timeline for a return to stability in energy markets and the resulting impact on corporate operating costs.

At the same time, both the index of current economic conditions and the expectations index recorded a significant decline, falling to 135 and 141 points respectively, from 157 and 163 points in the previous quarter.

A particularly notable deterioration was recorded in assessments of the Greek economy. Only 11% of CEOs expect the country’s economic situation to improve over the next twelve months, down from 29% in the previous survey, while the corresponding expectations index dropped to 142 points from 187.

A similar weakening trend is also observed in expectations regarding the sectors in which companies operate. The share of CEOs who believe their industries will be in a better position in one year fell to 19%, from 35% in the previous quarter.

Despite the more adverse environment, business leaders remain more optimistic about their own companies. Nearly one in two CEOs (47%) expects an improvement in their company’s financial performance over the next year, while among very large enterprises the figure rises to 52%.

Resilience is also observed in the labour market. The current employment index recorded a marginal increase, while 40% of CEOs expect their workforce to expand over the next twelve months.

The survey findings also highlight the perceived impact of the Middle East crisis. A total of 84% of CEOs believe that the conflict in Iran will significantly affect energy costs for Greek businesses, rising to 100% among industrial firms.

At the same time, nearly eight in ten business leaders believe that a potential escalation of the conflict would negatively affect Greek tourism in 2026. Specifically, 70% expect a negative impact on tourism revenues, while an additional 9% anticipate a very negative effect.

Commenting on the results, SEV management consultant Vasilis Rambat noted that the decline in the index reflects increased caution among CEOs regarding geopolitical developments and their implications for energy costs and economic growth prospects. However, he stressed that expectations for company performance and the resilience of the labour market indicate the adaptability of Greek businesses in an environment of heightened uncertainty.