EBRD: Central Asia and Mongolia emerge as growth leaders for 2026–2027

According to the report, the economies of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are expected to grow by 5.6% in 2026 and 5.3% in 2027, recording the strongest performance among the countries monitored by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

The Bank notes that economic activity across the region remains resilient, driven primarily by domestic consumption, investment, services, manufacturing, and construction. However, it warns of heightened risks associated with energy price volatility, supply chain disruptions, sanctions, and slower growth in the economies of Russia and China.

Kazakhstan: Slower Growth Due to the Oil Sector

For Kazakhstan, the EBRD forecasts economic growth of 4.7% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027. Despite positive performance in construction, transportation, and manufacturing, the extractive industry experienced a significant setback during the first quarter of the year, contracting by 11.4% due to disruptions affecting the Caspian Pipeline Consortium pipeline and an incident at the Tengiz Oil Field.

Kyrgyzstan: Strong Growth Amid Sanctions-Related Pressures

The economy of Kyrgyzstan continues to expand at a robust pace, supported by industry, trade, and construction. The EBRD estimates that GDP will increase by 8.7% in 2026 and 7.0% in 2027. However, the Bank has revised its forecasts downward due to new sanctions imposed by the European Union, which restrict exports of dual-use goods to the country and tighten controls in the financial and transport sectors.

Mongolia: Growth Supported by Mining and Consumption

The economy of Mongolia continues to benefit from strong activity in the mining sector and a recovery in agricultural production. Industrial output rose by 61.2% in the first quarter of 2026, primarily due to increased coal and copper extraction. Economic growth is projected to reach 5.5% in both 2026 and 2027, with a slowdown in the Chinese economy identified as the principal risk.

Tajikistan: Strong Performance and Moody’s Upgrade

Tajikistan is expected to record growth of 7.9% in 2026 and 7.0% in 2027, following GDP growth of approximately 8% during the first quarter of the year. Economic performance is being supported by stronger industrial production, transportation, and telecommunications, while large-scale public investments, including the Rogun Hydropower Project, are stimulating economic activity. In March 2026, Moody’s Ratings upgraded the country’s sovereign credit rating to B2 with a stable outlook.

Turkmenistan: Support from Natural Gas

Turkmenistan recorded growth of 6.3% in the first quarter of 2026, with the EBRD forecasting a similar growth rate for both 2026 and 2027. Economic expansion is supported by the energy sector and the fourth phase of the expansion of the Galkynysh Gas Field. At the same time, the country’s dependence on the Chinese market for natural gas exports remains a key challenge.

Uzbekistan: The Region’s Strongest Economy

Uzbekistan remains the most dynamic economy in the region, with GDP expanding by 8.7% in the first quarter of 2026. Growth is being driven by private consumption, increased remittance inflows, rising wages, and strong activity in the industrial and construction sectors. The EBRD forecasts growth of 6.5% in 2026 and 6.0% in 2027, noting that an acceleration of privatization reforms could lead to even stronger economic performance.

Despite geopolitical uncertainties and international economic pressures, the EBRD believes that Central Asia and Mongolia will continue to rank among the fastest-growing regions in the world, provided that reform momentum is maintained and economic resilience to external shocks is further strengthened.