However, contrary to this trend, the revised ESEK envisages the addition of two new gas units to the existing fleet without any withdrawals, bringing the total installed capacity from the current 6,037 GW to 7,885 GW. At the given juncture, this raises questions about the economic viability of gas plants which are likely to depend on subsidies such as capacity assurance mechanisms, raising costs for consumers.
In the absence of an up-to-date capacity adequacy study, Green Tank, in the analysis entitled "How much gas-fired power does the country need?", used hourly entso-e data and estimated the total thermal power from gas and lignite power plants needed to covering domestic electricity needs from 2019 to the first half of 2024. The aim of the analysis was to investigate whether this total power is the minimum necessary for the country's energy sufficiency or whether it will lead to unnecessary and costly subsidies to gas plants .
The processing of the data shows that:
• In the last 1.5 years, the coverage of domestic needs has never required more power of thermal units than what the currently available gas units can offer (6 GW). In the last 3.5 years, covering the domestic demand required more than 6 GW for just 1 hour.
• The maximum capacity of thermal units required to meet domestic needs is constantly decreasing (-27.6% compared to 2019) and in the first half of 2024 was limited to 5.1 GW, almost 2.8 GW lower than the capacity of gas units planned to operate in 2030 according to ESEK.
• Between 2019 and the first half of 2024, 5.86 TWh of energy from thermal plants was produced at times when the country was a net exporter of electricity and could therefore theoretically be avoided. This energy is estimated to have been responsible for 3.56 Mt CO2 emissions.
• The hours of the year that the country relies on RES are constantly increasing. For 43, 105 and 119 hours in 2022, 2023 and the first half of 2024 respectively, net exports exceeded production from thermal plants and therefore domestic needs could be met almost entirely by RES.
"Given the further development of RES and new storage infrastructures, it is expected that the maximum required power of thermal units to meet domestic needs will continue its downward trend. Therefore, it is necessary to review the price of the total gas plant capacity of 7,885 GW reflected in the revised ESEK for 2030, as well as the possible retirement of existing gas plants. In order to make political decisions, the preparation of an updated capacity adequacy study should be an urgent priority," said Nikos Mantzaris, energy policy analyst and co-founder of Green Tank.
