The OECD reports that grant and loan disbursements from the Recovery and Resilience Facility are expected to increase from 1.8% of GDP in 2024 to 3.6% in 2026, while private consumption is projected to grow by 1.2% this year and 1.7% in 2026.
Exports, however, are expected to slow down, in line with declining external demand—particularly from EU countries—as a result of U.S. tariffs.
For the Eurozone, GDP growth is projected at 1% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, compared to 0.8% in 2024. For the global economy, the OECD forecasts a significant slowdown in growth to 2.9% for both 2025 and 2026, down from 3.3% in 2024.
The OECD notes that the Greek economy remains resilient, with business expectations in the manufacturing and services sectors declining in April, yet still indicating a growth trajectory. It warns, however, that delays in absorbing Recovery Fund resources for investment, excessive wage increases, or a resurgence of extreme weather events could worsen economic prospects.
Regarding wages, the report stresses that if wage growth continues to outpace productivity, it could further weaken export performance.
"Further reducing tax evasion and limiting tax expenditures—particularly reduced VAT rates, which primarily benefit wealthy households—would increase revenues, enabling targeted cuts to social security contributions to strengthen labor market incentives," the report states.
Inflation, based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, is expected to fall to 2.5% in 2025 and to 2% in 2026, aided by lower oil prices, despite rising trade costs and persistent price pressures in services.
For 2025 and 2026, significant primary fiscal surpluses are forecast—2.1% and 2.2% of GDP, respectively—supported by improved tax compliance. These surpluses are projected to keep public debt on a downward path, with a target of 140% of GDP by 2026.
"Maintaining a steadily declining trajectory for public debt should remain a priority, given the fiscal pressures posed by an ageing population and rising investment needs," the OECD underlines.
"Sustaining reform momentum to improve the business environment and address severe labor shortages will support increased investment," it adds.
"Low productivity continues to constrain competitiveness and living standards. Stimulating investment will be critical to boosting growth while keeping public debt on a stable downward trajectory. This will require easing regulatory burdens and improving workforce skills," the OECD concludes.
