State budget posts €9.35B primary surplus in the first nine months of 2025
State budget posts €9.35B primary surplus in the first nine months of 2025
  Economy  |  Greece  |  Data

State budget posts €9.35B primary surplus in the first nine months of 2025

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RE+D magazine
15.10.2025

The state budget recorded a primary surplus of €9.35 billion in the January–September 2025 period, exceeding the target of €5.2 billion for the same period by more than €4.1 billion.

This exceptional outperformance is underpinned by an increase in tax revenues, which rose to €52.8 billion, marking an 8 % year‑on‑year increase, as well as a reduction in government expenditures, which were held at €52.2 billion—about 6 % lower on an annual basis—representing €3.4 billion less than budget projections.

In particular, for September 2025, total net revenues of the state budget reached €6,107 million, exceeding the monthly target by €277 million, although tax payments began earlier this year and were spread over more months than initially planned.

According to the preliminary execution data of the state budget (on a modified cash basis) for January to September 2025, announced today by the General Accounting Office, the state budget recorded a surplus of €2,308 million, versus a projected deficit of €1,581 million for the same period in 2025 as set in the Budget Explanatory Report. During the same period in 2024, there had been a surplus of €1,568 million.

The primary balance on a modified cash basis amounted to a surplus of €9,355 million, compared to the target of €5,209 million, and against a surplus of €8,735 million in the same period of 2024.

It should be noted that €2,073 million attributable to the timing of transfer payments from the ordinary budget, and €650 million relating to the timing of payments for defense programs, do not affect the result of the General Government in fiscal terms. Furthermore, €342 million in tax revenues from the first two months are counted fiscally in 2024. Excluding these amounts, the overperformance in the primary result on a modified cash basis, relative to the budget targets, is estimated at €1,081 million.

The General Accounting Office emphasizes that the primary result in fiscal terms differs from the cash‑basis outcome. Additionally, the figures above pertain to the primary result of the Central Administration, and not the total General Government, which includes the fiscal outcomes of legal entities and of sub‑sectors of local authorities and social security funds.

Overall, for January–September 2025, net revenues of the state budget amounted to €54,565 million, representing an increase of €460 million (or 0.9 %) relative to the target set in the Budget Explanatory Report. It should be noted that the net revenues figure includes, both under “Sales of goods and services” revenues and under VAT refunds, the amount of €784.8 million from transactions required in January 2025 to complete the new Concession Agreement for the Attiki Odos, related to 2024 and fiscally neutral.

The increase in net revenues relative to the target is observed despite the budget’s assumption (in the Explanatory Report) of €1,350 million in June receipts under the Concession Agreement for the operation, maintenance, and exploitation of the Egnatia Motorway and its three vertical axes (signed March 29, 2024). The remaining steps of that process are expected to conclude in the coming months. Excluding that €1,350 million, net revenues would exceed the target by €1,810 million (3.4 %), largely due to stronger tax performance.

Tax revenues before refunds reached €52,819 million, up €2,185 million (4.3 %) above target, primarily driven by improved collections of current-year taxes (income tax, VAT, excise duties, etc.) and stronger collections of prior-year income tax in installments through February 2025.

Refunds of revenues amounted to €6,764 million, including the €784.8 million VAT refund related to the Attiki Odos Concession, which is fiscally attributed to 2024. Excluding that amount, tax refunds were €5,979 million, up €353 million from the budgeted €5,626 million.

As a result, net tax revenues (after refunds) for January–September 2025 are ahead of budget by €1,832 million. As mentioned, €342 million in early‑year tax revenues are counted in 2024 for fiscal accounting.

Revenues from the Public Investment Program (PIP) reached €2,874 million, falling short by €571 million relative to the target of €3,445 million.

The precise breakdown by revenue category will be published in the final report.

Specifically, in September 2025, net revenues amounted to €6,107 million, exceeding the monthly target by €277 million.

Tax revenues that month were €6,300 million, up €144 million (2.3 %) above target. Note that part of the income tax was collected earlier in previous months, thanks to enabling the tax filing system in mid‑March.

Refunds of revenues were €583 million, short of the monthly target by €332 million (€915 million), due to higher refunds in the previous month from tax declarations.

PIP revenues in that month were €182 million, €178 million below target (€360 million).

Expenditures of the State Budget for January–September 2025 totaled €52,257 million, undershooting the target by €3,429 million (target: €55,686 million), though €2,927 million higher than the same period in 2024.

In the ordinary budget segment, payments were lower than target by €3,291 million, primarily due to timing of €2,073 million in transfer payments to social security and other general government bodies and €650 million in payments for defense programs.

These amounts, as noted, do not impact General Government fiscal outcomes.

Notable transfers include:

  • €952 million to hospitals and health regions

  • €400 million for covering costs of universal service in electricity (YSOK), under Article 55 of Law 4508/2017

  • €463 million to the National Central Authority for Health Supplies (EKAPY) for procurement of pharmaceuticals, products, and health services for public hospitals

  • €282 million in subsidies to transport authorities (OASA, OASTH, and OSE)

  • €153 million to Higher Education Institutions

Payments under investment expenditures reached €8,186 million, €138 million below target, though €948 million above the payments in 2024. Expenditures under the Recovery and Resilience Fund (RRF) for January–September 2025 totaled €2,629 million, up by €240 million relative to targets.