According to INE / GSEE, "almost a year after the onset of the health
crisis, the Greek economy, deeply wounded, is in an experimental
situation of lifting the suspension of its core activities. According to
estimates by INE / GSEE and the Levy Economics Institute, as well as
many other institutions and organizations, the recession in 2020 is
estimated to be greater than 10%, while there is great concern about the
evolution of unemployment in the post-Covid era.
At the same time, major sources of economic and social instability, such
as deflation, declining wages and incomes, the sharp decline in
employment, consumption, exports and investment, and the over-expansion
of the public deficit and debt, are raising concerns for the course of
the economy in 2021, which is intensified by the uncertainty regarding
the evolution of the pandemic.
On the other hand, the start of vaccination, the reactivation of key
economic sectors and the prospect of an influx of European transfers and
loans, create moderate optimism about reversing the recession and the
prospect of a positive GDP recovery in 2021".
Regarding the developments in the production structure, the bulletin of
economic developments presents the percentage change in selected sectors
of the Greek economy in relation to the average of the Eurozone and
selected member states.
Among other things, the following are listed:
"Compared to the rest of the Eurozone, manufacturing in Greece is more
resilient, as it recorded the smallest decline during both the second
and third quarters.
This development may be due to the lower exposure of Greek manufacturing
companies to international trade, which, although shielding them from
external negative disturbances, keeps the trade balance of the economy
in a deficit position.
As already noted in the reports on the Greek economy, the greater
interconnection of manufacturing with exports will determine the growth
potential of the economy in the medium term.
Also, in Greece, the decline in economic activity in the broader sector
of retail and wholesale trade, transport, catering and accommodation
during the second and third quarters, is the highest in the entire
Eurozone, (with the exception of Malta), especially in the third quarter
the gap from the other Eurozone Member States increases significantly,
as the decline in Greece is 30%, while the corresponding average in the
Eurozone, Austria and Portugal, is smaller of 10%.
The weakening of the activity in this sector contributed to the big drop
of the real GDP of Greece, given its participation in the total added
value of the economy.
Equally important was the reduction in gross value added in the professional, scientific and technical activities.
In particular, while in our country in the second quarter the decrease
in economic activity in these sectors was approximately similar to that
of the Eurozone (21% in Greece compared to 18% in the Eurozone), in the
third quarter the downward dynamics in our country remains almost
constant (-19% compared to the corresponding quarter of 2019), while in
the Eurozone the decline is much milder.
Finally, the sector that suffered the largest decrease in its activity
is that of arts and entertainment, with the decline on an annual basis
being equal to 46% in the second quarter and 16% in the third quarter.
It is noted that the decrease in the second and third quarters in our
country is greater than in the Eurozone as a whole, which indicates the
need to address the sector's problems immediately, as its outlook
remains negative for most of 2021. .
The impact of the decline in economic activity on employment is
reflected in a relevant chart in the economic development bulletin,
which shows the annual change of the employed, the unemployed and the
economically inactive.
Unemployment in September may have recovered to the level of January
(16.1%), but the volume of employment is consistently lower than in the
corresponding months of 2019.
In particular, between June and September, employment is lower by an average of 68 thousand people.
The number of unemployed appears to be equally reduced, but this size
hides the number of those on suspension of work who are registered as
economically inactive.
This last element explains the increase in the number of economically inactive in relation to the corresponding months of 2019.
The steadily reduced level of employment compared to the corresponding
months of the previous year is due, among other things, to the increase
in employment time.
As noted, in the third quarter, 3.35 million people worked more hours
than normal hours, of which 37.1% worked more than 48 hours per week.
Therefore, the easing of social distancing measures in the third
quarter, as well as the increase in economic activity compared to the
second quarter did not lead to a significant increase in employment, but
mainly to an increase in working time.
The sectors in which the phenomenon is most pronounced are those of real
estate management, retail and wholesale trade, processing and
management of water resources, water supply, electricity, etc., with the
percentage of people who worked longer hours to exceed 90% ", according
to the bulletin of economic developments.
