The global recovery is continuing but its momentum has eased and is becoming increasingly imbalanced according to theOECD's latest Economic Outlook. The failure to ensure rapid and effective vaccination everywhere is proving costly with uncertainty remaining high due to the continued emergence of new variants of the virus.
Output in most OECD countries has now surpassed where it was in late-2019 and is gradually returning to the path expected before the pandemic. However, lower-income economies, particularly ones where vaccination rates against COVID-19 are still low, are at risk of being left behind.
The Outlook projects a rebound in global economic growth to 5.6% this year and 4.5% in 2022, before settling back to 3.2% in 2023, close to the rates seen prior to the pandemic.
In particular Greece’s GDP is projected to increase by 6.7% in 2021 and just under 5% in 2022, before growth moderates in 2023.
As containment measures eased in April 2021, economic activity rebounded, supported by a stronger-than-expected summer tourist season. Government support and investments will further contribute to the recovery of employment and consumption. High levels of spare capacity will likely limit the rise in inflation. A worsening in the health situation and investment delays would imperil the projected recovery.
The government will continue to gradually withdraw emergency fiscal support measures as the sanitary situation evolves, while its recovery and resilience plan is expected to boost activity and productivity through investments in the green transition, upgrading digital infrastructure and skills, and supporting private firms’ investments. Realising the projected acceleration in investment will require resolving banks’ remaining non-performing loans and tax credits, and improving the investment climate and the public sector’s performance. Sustaining the recovery will require activating workers and raising adults’ skills to lift employment and productivity.
Strong growth is projected as an improving business climate and the recovery and resilience plan boost employment and investment. Government support will continue to bolster incomes and consumption into 2022, which will be further supported by a 2% minimum wage increase at the start of 2022. Exports will be aided by rebounding global demand and the recovery in global tourism. Reform efforts are expected to promote business confidence and contribute to higher employment rates by raising labour market participation, while infrastructure and business investments are projected to support employment and improve productivity.
You may find out more in the full OECD's Economic Outlook Report
