€2,1B primary surplus in Greek economy in January
€2,1B primary surplus in Greek economy in January
  Economy  |  Greece  |  Analysis

€2,1B primary surplus in Greek economy in January

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RE+D magazine
15.02.2024

The Ministry of Finance has released provisional execution data for the state budget in January, revealing a primary surplus of €2.122 billion. This is higher than the target of €1.118 billion and also exceeds the primary surplus of €2.773 billion recorded during the same period in 2023.

In January, tax revenues in the amount of €6,549 million were collected by the Central Administration. This presented an increase of €825 million compared to the target set in the introductory report of the 2024 Budget for the same period. The increase was mainly due to the better performance in VAT revenues and income tax.

On a modified cash basis, for the period of January 2024, the state budget showed a surplus of €933 million, as opposed to a target of a deficit of €82 million. This surplus was included in the introductory report of the 2024 Budget for the corresponding period of 2024. In addition, there was a surplus of €1,480 million for the corresponding period of 2023.

The primary result on an adjusted cash basis was a surplus of €2,122 million, against a target of a primary surplus of €1,118 million and a primary surplus of €2,773 million for the same period in 2023. However, it should be noted that most of the difference in the primary surplus against the target in cash terms does not count towards the primary result of 2024 in fiscal terms.

It is worth noting that the primary result of the Central Administration does not include the fiscal results of Legal Entities and the sub-sectors of OTAs and OKAs. Indicatively, amounts of €159 million relating to revenues from the Recovery and Resilience Fund, which were received in arrears, as well as €205 million relating to the rescheduling of equipment program payments, do not affect the fiscal result in fiscal terms. The difference in net tax collections of €399 million is almost entirely accounted for in the fiscal result of the year 2023. Therefore, the primary result in fiscal terms differs significantly from the result in cash terms.

During the period of January 2024, the State Budget had an increase in revenue due to three reasons: Firstly, there was an increase of €399 million in tax revenue (after refund deductions). Secondly, there was an increase of €211 million in PDE revenue. Finally, there was the collection of €159 million from the Recovery and Resilience Fund, which was expected to be collected in March 2024.

Tax revenues amounted to €5,654 million, which is higher than the Budget 2024 target by €461 million or 8.9%. This increase is attributed to the better performance of income taxes from the previous year, which are collected in instalments until the end of February 2024. Additionally, the current year's taxes (VAT, etc.) were collected better.

The final bulletin will provide the exact distribution between the revenue categories of the State Budget. Revenue returns amounted to €501 million, which is €62 million higher than the target of €439 million. The revenues of the Public Investment Program (PIP) amounted to €925 million, which is €211 million higher than the target of €714 million.

The expenses of the State Budget for January 2024 amounted to €5,616 million, which is lower than the target of €5,806 million in the introductory report of the 2024 Budget. This is also a €70 million reduction compared to the corresponding period in 2023, mainly due to the reduced cash transfer payments to other legal entities.

In the Regular Budget section, payments are reduced compared to the target by €403 million. This decrease is primarily due to the deferral of cash payments for the equipment programs of the Ministry of National Defense by €205 million. The payment for investment expenses amounted to €948 million, which is €213 million higher than the target. This increase is due to the over-execution of the PDE by €222 million.

It is important to note that at the start of the financial year, agencies prioritize taking credits to service unpaid obligations from previous years. This is also done in the context of multi-year obligations.