According to the EY 2026 Geostrategic Outlook, geopolitical developments will continue to directly influence markets, investments, and business models in 2026. The report maps the ten most critical geopolitical trends, grouped into three main axes: new rules and norms, resource geopolitics, and key arenas of international contention.
New Rules and Norms
State intervention—through subsidies, trade restrictions, and government stakes—is expected to continue, affecting business competitiveness. Meanwhile, international trade will remain under pressure, as U.S.–China competition intensifies tariffs and export controls, creating new disruptions in supply chains.
Particular emphasis is also placed on dominance in artificial intelligence and cybersecurity, as the rise in cyberattacks drives states to strengthen digital autonomy and control over critical technologies.
Resource Geopolitics
Water scarcity, already affecting approximately four billion people worldwide, is evolving into a source of geopolitical tension, particularly due to increased water demand for data centers and semiconductor production. At the same time, the “battle” over rare earths is intensifying international competition, reshaping production and trade chains. Meanwhile, the global financial system remains burdened by high levels of debt, with increased sensitivity to interest rate changes and the strategic use of capital and foreign exchange flows.
Arenas of Contention
Geographically, North America is expected to experience political volatility; the Asia-Pacific region will remain the central hub of geopolitical competition, with a focus on economic security; and Europe will find itself at a critical crossroads of security and competitiveness. The Middle East, finally, is entering a phase of realignment, with new balances and investment opportunities emerging.
George Papadimitriou, CEO of EY Greece, emphasizes: “In 2026, the world enters a period of heightened uncertainty, shaped by disruptive and interconnected forces. Geostrategic analysis must now be at the core of business strategy, enabling organizations to strengthen resilience and seize new value-creation opportunities.”
Three Strategic Priorities for Businesses
EY recommends that organizations focus on:
Building resilience and scenario planning for unpredictable developments;
Cross-functional management of geostrategic risks, involving finance, legal, and technology departments;
Adjusting supply chains and investment strategies in accordance with geopolitical balances.
In an environment where geopolitics and the economy are increasingly intertwined, strategic flexibility emerges as a critical factor for sustainability and growth in 2026.
