The critical issue of demographic decline and its far-reaching impact on the real estate market was addressed by Mr. Dimitris Andritsos, President of Cerved Property Services, during this year’s 18th RED Meeting Point.
According to Mr. Andritsos, mounting pressure on the housing market stems from the weakening of regional areas, the commodification of housing as an investment vehicle, and the limited capacity of the welfare state to provide adequate support.
With compelling data, he presented a sobering picture of Greece’s demographic future: a 6% population decline over the past decade, a projected population of just 9 million by 2050, and 34% of citizens expected to be over the age of 65. “By 2050, 62% of the population will be classified as dependents,” he noted. “We are heading toward an economy increasingly reliant on a shrinking working population, bearing the weight of rising welfare and production demands.”
The Emptying of the Regions
Meanwhile, Greece’s regional areas are steadily depopulating. Western Macedonia, Epirus, and Thessaly have seen population declines of up to 20%, with entire villages losing critical infrastructure — from schools to healthcare facilities. This internal migration toward Athens, Thessaloniki, and popular island destinations is deepening spatial inequalities and placing severe strain on urban infrastructure.
Housing Becomes a Luxury
The imbalance between supply and demand in the housing sector is increasingly reflected in pricing. Since 2018, residential property prices have surged by 70%, while average incomes have risen by only 25%. More than 65% of private-sector employees currently earn less than €1,000 per month.
The average housing price per square meter in Greece now stands at €2,900. In Athens, prices range from €2,000 to €3,500 per sqm; in Thessaloniki, from €1,500 to €2,500; and on tourist islands, they can exceed €10,000 per sqm. In stark contrast, properties in many rural regions range from €300 to €800 per sqm — though these homes are often abandoned or have been uninhabited for years.
“Homeownership has become an unattainable dream,” Mr. Andritsos emphasized. “In Athens, Thessaloniki, and major tourist destinations, housing prices exceed the financial capacity of most households by approximately 48%.”
Side Effects of Government Programs
Regarding the “My Home 2” program, Mr. Andritsos noted that despite its good intentions, the interest rate subsidy led to a sharp increase in property prices. Within just one year, the average value of a home purchased through the scheme rose by €25,000.
“In practice, the subsidy is absorbed into the sale price. The result is an inflationary boost to the market,” he explained.
Housing as an Investment Product
A growing concern is the transformation of housing into a financial asset. Before 2008, 90% of property purchases were made for owner-occupation. Today, 39% are made for investment purposes, primarily in the form of short-term rentals such as Airbnb.
In Athens, 70% of short-term rental listings are controlled by "multi-owners" with more than two properties. This phenomenon is driving rents up and depleting the stock of housing available for permanent residents.
The Need for a New Housing Model
Concluding his remarks, Mr. Andritsos emphasized that housing is not just an economic issue — it is a matter of social cohesion.
“We need strategic planning, demographic reinforcement, a redirection of investment, and a better balance between social needs and private interests.”
“Greece is facing a triple crisis — demographic, social, and housing. Unless we design forward-looking policies with a multi-decade horizon, the imbalance will only deepen, at an immeasurable cost,” he warned.
