The Ellinikon shifts from pre-sales to execution in next growth phase

According to management during yesterday’s briefing with equity analysts following the release of the first-quarter results, the company expects to collect an additional approximately €700 million by 2028–2029 from residential units that have already been placed on the market. Of this amount, around €600 million is backed by signed sale and purchase agreements, while a further €100 million relates to customer reservations.

At the same time, Lamda aims to generate cash inflows of approximately €600 million from the Ellinikon project during 2026, while the project’s cumulative revenues had already reached €2 billion by the end of May. Residential sales continue to represent a key pillar of the Ellinikon investment case. To date, 315 homes on the coastal front have been sold, while approximately 90% of the roughly 670 residences in Little Athens have already been reserved. Overall, the first phase of the residential developments comprises nearly 1,300 homes.

Management acknowledged that residential sales have moderated in recent months but attributed the slowdown exclusively to limited inventory availability rather than weaker demand. In response, the company plans to release an additional 300 to 350 residential units by the end of the year, including approximately 120 to 150 units scheduled to be launched in July.

Meanwhile, the project is entering its most capital-intensive phase. Total capital expenditure for the Ellinikon development is expected to reach €1.6 billion in 2026, up from approximately €1 billion in 2025. The project’s two flagship retail developments—the Ellinikon Mall and Riviera Galleria—alone account for a combined investment budget of approximately €800 million.

Construction progress is now becoming increasingly visible beyond the project sites. The Ellinikon Sports Park is expected to open to the public in July, marking the first major component of the development to be delivered. At the same time, Riviera Tower has completed its main structural construction and has entered the phase of mechanical, electrical and plumbing (MEP) installations and finishing works, while Riviera Galleria and the upgraded Agios Kosmas Marina represent the next major project milestones.

Despite a 54% increase in sales during the first quarter, the Ellinikon project remains loss-making at the operating level. EBITDA remained negative, while net losses widened as the acceleration of infrastructure works significantly increased development costs during the current phase. According to management, this trend is expected to persist over the next 18 to 24 months until the majority of the core infrastructure is completed.

Behind the scenes, however, the principal outstanding issue remains the agreement with ION concerning the development of a Research and Innovation Centre at the Ellinikon site. Although the due diligence process has now been completed, negotiations are continuing, with management describing the transaction as complex given its scale. With an estimated investment budget that could exceed €2 billion, the proposed agreement is widely regarded by the market as one of the most significant investments in the next phase of the Ellinikon development and is expected to serve as the next major test for the landmark project.