Greece achieves €3.511B primary surplus at start of 2026

Final figures from the Ministry of National Economy and Finance indicate a significant shortfall in tax revenues for January 2026, reflecting the execution of the state budget.

Specifically, net tax revenues (excluding accounting entries from the concession of the Egnatia Odos motorway) fell below the target by €324 million (-5.3%). Compared with the projections of the budget explanatory report, Value Added Tax (VAT) recorded a shortfall of €49 million, while Excise Duties (ED) were €154 million below the target.

On the expenditure side, state spending was lower than expected by €1.709 billion during the same period, resulting in a surplus in the overall state budget.

Budget Performance in January 2026

According to the final execution data for the State Budget, January 2026 recorded a budget surplus of €2.288 billion, compared with a target surplus of €543 million set in the 2026 budget explanatory report, and €758 million in the same period of 2025.

The primary balance (on a modified cash basis) reached a surplus of €3.511 billion, exceeding the target primary surplus of €1.751 billion and the €1.980 billion recorded in January 2025.

However, excluding €1.272 billion in timing differences for transfer payments to general government entities, and €379 million in timing differences in investment expenditures—which do not affect the General Government’s fiscal outcome—the “net” primary balance surplus on a modified cash basis relative to the budget target is estimated at €109 million.

Overall, net state budget revenues were close to targets, increasing slightly by €35 million.

Accounting Notes

The General Accounting Office emphasizes that the primary balance in fiscal terms differs from the cash-based result. Additionally, the above figures relate to the Central Administration’s primary balance and do not include the full General Government, which also accounts for the fiscal results of legal entities and sub-sectors of local authorities (OTAs) and social security organizations (OKAs).

January revenues include amounts related to the completion of the Service Concession Agreement for financing, operating, maintaining, and exploiting the Egnatia Odos motorway and its three vertical axes over 35 years, ratified under Law 5260/2025.

• €306 million corresponding to 24% VAT on the transaction price was recorded as “Taxes” and accompanied by an equal tax refund.
• The same €306 million was subsequently recorded as “Sales of Goods and Services” in the budget.

Revenue Performance

In January 2026, net revenues of the state budget amounted to €6.138 billion, representing a slight increase of €35 million (+0.6%) compared with the budget target.

Breakdown of Major Revenue Categories:

1. Taxes: €6.118 billion, including €306 million from the Egnatia Odos concession. Excluding this, tax revenues amounted to €5.812 billion, €324 million (-5.3%) below target, primarily due to lower VAT and ED collections on energy products.
   • VAT revenues: €3.136 billion, above target by €257 million. Excluding the €306 million concession-related VAT, VAT was €49 million below target.
   • Excise Duties: €393 million, €154 million below target.
   • Property taxes: €90 million, €8 million below target.
   • Income taxes: €2.059 billion, €43 million below target, with Personal Income Tax +€14 million, Corporate Income Tax -€26 million, and Other Income Taxes -€31 million relative to the target.
2. Social Contributions: €5 million, in line with the target.
3. Transfers: €56 million, €116 million below target; €46 million related to Public Investment Program (PIP) revenues, €57 million below target.
4. Sales of Goods and Services: €479 million, including €306 million from the Egnatia Odos concession; net of this, revenues were €173 million, €77 million above target.
5. Other Current Revenues: €276 million, €89 million above target; €93 million of this relates to PIP revenues, €66 million above target.

Revenue Refunds: €795 million, including the €306 million VAT refund from the Egnatia Odos concession; net of this, refunds were €489 million, €3 million below target (€492 million).

Public Investment Program (PIP) Revenues: €139 million, €9 million above target (€130 million).

Expenditure Performance

State budget expenditures in January 2026 amounted to €3.851 billion, €1.709 billion below the target of €5.560 billion and €1.382 billion lower than January 2025, mainly due to timing differences in transfers to social security organizations (OKAs).

• Ordinary Budget Payments: €1.330 billion below target, primarily due to timing differences in transfer payments to general government entities (€1.272 billion).
• Investment Expenditures: €427 million, €379 million below target and €309 million lower than January 2025.

The Ministry notes that at the start of the fiscal year, priority is given to allocations covering unpaid obligations from previous years and multi-year commitments.